Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 76969.511931 81319.493960 85673.647159 90355.880364 95245.377428 100197.518120 105589.106467
2025-12-14 69417.279266 76007.156617 82792.154031 90290.614895 98335.659237 106698.309261 116038.623386
2025-12-21 64237.068611 72358.603854 80908.984695 90562.375386 101138.081009 112351.875923 125121.176878
2025-12-28 61044.507398 70402.129754 80437.025357 91966.459821 104813.747956 118656.072008 134664.175614
2026-01-04 58228.694409 68562.235238 79824.063903 92961.719812 107817.371259 124045.029233 143060.744450
2026-01-11 55634.928216 66754.454232 79051.289074 93594.158605 110255.749588 128679.598918 150521.738234
2026-01-18 53084.787445 64823.511493 77982.558709 93743.201138 112018.605475 132453.416607 156937.368565
2026-01-25 50870.485046 63147.705439 77085.546149 93975.666567 113779.146971 136149.979850 163213.709902
2026-02-01 48698.924852 61406.823336 76008.264675 93899.899642 115097.937086 139274.640022 168788.067005
2026-02-08 47174.537280 60355.131969 75669.125038 94626.326303 117302.734919 143392.457468 175503.159687
2026-02-15 45374.649123 58887.903652 74760.677515 94606.349732 118567.344861 146369.184967 180858.648148
2026-02-22 44399.954189 58377.671706 74959.543532 95879.445607 121349.870408 151128.231000 188331.665542
2026-03-01 43229.604366 57593.751550 74805.710005 96718.491437 123622.892147 155317.304533 195194.400290
2026-03-08 41720.213990 56330.891831 74016.520096 96738.932561 124873.410612 158269.043005 200582.280513
2026-03-15 40447.414507 55317.257458 73491.926125 97046.795314 126446.190162 161594.385677 206423.708621
2026-03-22 39818.295698 55094.984866 73931.675509 98537.142789 129469.560713 166689.077444 214441.834023
2026-03-29 39029.286657 54632.892996 74041.211571 99591.208376 131939.664628 171109.787614 221657.399916
2026-04-05 38113.323777 53970.661532 73866.378160 100260.526483 133912.662924 174915.742017 228130.872141
2026-04-12 37021.802797 53039.970554 73313.788989 100418.251591 135219.033099 177885.643864 233574.316142
2026-04-19 36024.884571 52201.548507 72850.576530 100664.180934 136617.928743 180962.305157 239156.545851
2026-04-26 34940.392592 51211.162041 72157.789181 100584.033343 137578.052546 183476.908188 244036.469554
2026-05-03 34257.024001 50740.692045 72128.189589 101352.461182 139619.962384 187356.313210 250649.676120
2026-05-10 33288.010197 49850.209787 71515.643410 101331.330556 140623.045919 189911.622466 255593.939875